Google Trends have accurately predicted election outcomes in the United States, Canada, and the Philippines.
By Bryle B. Suralta, www.esquiremag.ph
While presidential candidate former Sen. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. is firmly in the lead in the latest Pulse Asia surveys, Google Trends is telling us a much different story.
The last Pulse Asia results held from April 16 to 21 saw Marcos, Jr. leading all bets with 56 percent, followed by Vice President Leonor “Leni” Robredo at only 24 percent. These numbers are quite similar to what we’ve seen from surveys in March. For their data sampling, Pulse Asia usually interviews 2,400 respondents who are registered voters. It also claims to maintain a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.
However, the latest Google Trends report says otherwise. Based on its latest search interest data compiled on May 1, Robredo leads all candidates at 55% with Marcos, Jr. trailing her at 24%. Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso sits at third at roughly 10%.
Historically, Google Trends has been accurate in terms of predicting election results. It has successfully predicted every United States presidential outcome since 2004. This includes the highly polarizing 2016 US elections, when President Donald Trump took office. Similarly, it also predicted the wins of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2015, 2019, and 2021, as well as the victory of our very own President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016.
Google Trends has accurately foresaw election results in countries like Greece, Spain, France, Germany, and Brazil, as well.